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  • #16
    Originally posted by brjordan View Post
    Thank you all for your helpful feedback.

    One more point: it looks as if 454 has been losing market share. Maybe that's why they just announced a "454 junior" with 1/5th the price and 1/10th the throughput of their current system?
    I heard about the GS Jr. several years ago from a Roche rep (very hush-hush at the time) so I don't think rolling it out is in response to market share. Frankly I thought the project had been shelved until they announced it.

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    • #17
      Our GAs have serial numbers and apprximate installation dates of:
      202 October 2007
      350 May 2008
      582 December 2008

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      • #18
        Have you heard of the 'Tank counting statistic'?




        Assuming sequential serial numbers, you should be able to bound the number of machines 'in the wild'.
        Homepage: Dan Bolser
        MetaBase the database of biological databases.

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        • #19
          Hi guys

          As part of the high-throughput sequencing map site James Hadfield and I set up, I've added a little page to collect instrument serial numbers.

          Once we've got enough numbers for any given platform I'll post the results on the page. Hopefully we can get enough serials for each platform to get definitive data on the numbers of shipped instruments.

          This is entirely anonymous and I won't publish the serial numbers so you won't upset your instrument rep!

          Go visit http://pathogenomics.bham.ac.uk/hts/serial to take part

          Cheers!

          Nick.

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          • #20
            Originally posted by dan View Post
            Have you heard of the 'Tank counting statistic'?




            Assuming sequential serial numbers, you should be able to bound the number of machines 'in the wild'.
            Right. We are assuming here that for instance, none of the companies uses the same series for several kinds of products.
            Tank counting is ok as long as only tanks are numbered..

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            • #21
              Yep, it does depend on companies not sharing serial numbers between unrelated product lines. Intuitively this feels unlikely to be the case but I guess it is possible.

              We do have some data (e.g. from the map) which will help us figure out if the predictions are likely to be right, e.g. relative frequencies of 454s, Solexas and SOLiDs in the wild.

              My boss always says "Why think, why not do the experiment?" - lets have a go and see if it works! Please send your numbers in!

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              • #22
                Awesome initiative!

                As an incentive to reports, a prize should be given to the person who reported the highest id at the end of each week (Friday 5pm CET). T-shirt? Chocolate bar?

                Originally posted by brjordan View Post
                The number of machines sold by each major manufacturer is a closely guarded secret - they gave some figures at the beginning, but no longer now (as far as I've been able to see). Does anyone have firm or semi-firm estimates? My own guestimate is around 1,000 systems sold altogether, more than half being Illumina and the rest shared (about equally) between 454 and SOLiD...
                Do you agree, disagree?

                All replies will be VERY welcome!

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                • #23
                  Hehe! That might skew the results a bit

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                  • #24
                    Maybe we then need a phone picture of the Serial number as a proof :-)

                    Originally posted by nickloman View Post
                    Hehe! That might skew the results a bit

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                    • #25
                      Hi Steven,

                      Almost all manufacutrers use sequential serial numbers, they have too as it is very complex to try and hide this kind of info. Assuming this is tru for ABI, 454 and Illumina then this method should give an approximation. I believe they do not use a set of serial numbers across multiple platforms. Our BeadScanner and Cluster station are quite different to our GAs.

                      The google map (http://pathogenomics.bham.ac.uk/hts) of seqeuncers Nick mentioned might allow us to say if that approximation bears any resemblance to what people say they have on the map.

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                      • #26
                        Sure, the assumption of sequential serial numbers for a same product line is reasonable and makes sense (although it is still an assumption). As soon as i get my hands on a machine i will definitely post the number.

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                        • #27
                          Guys

                          I've got 15 numbers so far. Mainly these are Illumina, the rest are 454 and only 1 SOLiD number. We probably only need 15 or so more numbers to start making predictions .. Please spread the word far and wide to anyone who can get access to a machine and post a number for this project!



                          Still no prizes on offer yet, just the warm glow of having helped the war effort. But if incentives are required then so be it!!

                          Cheers

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                          • #28
                            Maybe someone could offer a prize? Illumina, ABI or 454, even Pacific Biosciences perhaps ;-)
                            James.

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                            • #29
                              Originally posted by james hadfield View Post
                              Maybe someone could offer a prize? Illumina, ABI or 454, even Pacific Biosciences perhaps ;-)
                              James.
                              They are all too busy changing their serial number policy, setting a +10 iteration at each machine

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                              • #30
                                Cookies!

                                I'll send a box of fresh home-baked cookies custom prepared according to the winner's favorite ingredients and specs. Otherwise, chocolate-chip with pecans.
                                Joann

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